India’s monetary policy targets overall inflation around 4%. But the figure households feel most is food inflation — and it has been volatile. In December 2024, food inflation ran at about 8.39% year-on-year (rural 8.65%, urban 7.90%).

The Economic Survey flagged tomato, onion and potato — the "TOP" vegetables — as the leading drivers. When these spike, the cost of an ordinary thali jumps even if the headline number looks tame.

The other side of the swing

Volatility cuts both ways: by late 2025, food inflation had swung into deflation in some months (around -3.9% YoY in November 2025) as vegetable prices fell — which hurts farmers even as it helps consumers.

The constructive lesson isn’t to cheer or jeer a single month’s print. It’s to build supply chains, storage and price data good enough that families and farmers aren’t whipsawed by the next tomato cycle.